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Event | 29 October 2024

ELN workshop report: Technological complexity and risk reduction

2NT Cyber Emerging technologies Nuclear Security Nuclear Weapons Risk Reduction Emerging Disruptive Technologies and risk reduction

On the 29th and 30th of October 2024, the European Leadership Network (ELN) convened a two-day workshop as part of its project, “Simulating Technological Complexity & Advancing Risk Reduction”, generously supported by the German Federal Foreign Office. The workshop brought together a diverse, intergenerational group, including ELN network members and subject matter experts, to explore how experimental AI-driven prototypes might enhance decision-making and reduce risks associated with Emerging and Disruptive Technologies (EDTs) in the nuclear domain.

 

Objectives and focus

The ELN previously produced a Guardrails and Self-Assessment Framework (GSA), a tool for both states with and without nuclear weapons, to assess the inherent risks of implementing EDTs in nuclear command, control, and communication (NC3) systems and decision-making processes. Following this, we have been working in collaboration with Adarga, an AI software provider in the defence and security sector, and the AI and Cyber Futures Institute at Charles Sturt University. Adarga and the AI and Cyber Futures Institute have produced two separate cutting-edge AI-driven tools to simulate nuclear decision-making scenarios, evaluate the impact of EDTs on these processes, and evaluate the success of the ELN’s GSA framework in reducing levels of risk in nuclear crisis scenarios.

 

Key discussions

Participants engaged with the prototype tools to provide critical feedback. Sessions highlighted the prototypes’ ability to simulate complex escalation scenarios, analyse decision-making pathways, and generate actionable insights. Experts commended the tools’ potential to improve situational awareness and strategic planning by integrating human-machine teaming and real-time scenario modelling. The discussion also underscored the risks inherent to EDT integration, including operational complexities and strategic miscalculations.

 

Outcomes and next steps

The workshop reaffirmed the identified risks in integrating EDTs in NC3 systems and supported the measures produced in the ELN’s GSA Framework.

Using the feedback and insights of the experts at this workshop, Adarga and the AI and Cyber Futures Institute will continue to develop their tools to enhance decision-makers’ understanding of risks pertaining to nuclear scenarios and how they could derisk potential escalatory actions.  The ELN will continue to work in partnership with both companies to refine our GSA Framework and explore the role of EDTs in nuclear decision-making. By engaging stakeholders across government, academia, and industry, the ELN aims to shape more resilient and responsible approaches to EDT integration in nuclear policy.

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‘Technological Complexity and Risk Reduction: A Guardrails and checklist framework for EDTs in nuclear weapons decision-making’.

On 10th-11th April 2024, the ELN convened a group of diverse experts for a workshop at the German Federal Foreign Office to consider the core ingredients of a guardrails and checklist framework that will help policymakers anticipate and address challenges arising from Emerging and Disruptive Technologies (EDTs) and their aggregate effects on nuclear command, control, and communications (NC3) and nuclear weapons decision-making.

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Technological complexity and risk reduction: A Guardrails and Self-Assessment Framework for EDTs in NC3 and nuclear weapons decision-making

Emerging and disruptive technologies (EDTs) are changing our lives – including in the worlds of defence and security. The ELN has been working since 2020 to understand how future nuclear crises may be affected by the intersection of multiple rapidly evolving new technologies. Building on years of work, this report presents a new Framework to help guide the safe use of EDTs in nuclear command, control and communications (NC3) systems, aiming to reduce risks and manage escalation.