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Commentary | 11 October 2024

The use of EDTs in Ukraine could offer lessons for military strategies in South Asia

The Russian full-scale invasion of Ukraine that began in 2022 demonstrates how modern technologies have reshaped traditional warfare. Emerging and disruptive technologies (EDTs) have redefined military strategies and tactics by building closer interfaces between traditional technologies and the digital battlefield. The war in Ukraine also involves new stakeholders, from private-sector industrial companies to public/mass entities. These include commercial industries, startup businesses, volunteer hacktivist groups, and anonymous forces equipped with information technology-led operations. Ukraine has become a theatre for military innovation, offering significant lessons on the employment of integrated technologies (land, air, sea, space, and cyber domains and AI-led newer and smarter systems) to fight cross-domain warfare which Indian and Pakistani militaries in South Asia could learn from.

Ukraine’s inadequate self-defence

Ukraine’s inadequate self-defence left it vulnerable to potential incursions into its sovereign territory by Russia. After the disintegration of the Soviet Union, part of its nuclear arsenal was placed in newly independent Ukraine. Subsequently, Ukraine agreed to renounce these weapons and join the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) as a non-nuclear weapon state.

Despite this move, Ukraine neither fell under the direct umbrella of the US nuclear-extended deterrent nor received positive security assurances against Russia. The 1994 Budapest Memorandum, which provided Ukraine with ambiguous security assurances regarding its sovereignty and territorial integrity, was breached by Russia in 2014 through the annexation of Crimea and aggression in eastern Ukraine. Furthermore, Russia’s actions in 2022 have not only violated the memorandum but constrained the ability of the signatories to intervene directly in the conflict. Although Nuclear Possessor States might find it challenging to accomplish their objectives through blackmail, credible deterrence can effectively handle the escalation in a war theatre and prevent the direct physical military intervention of a third party, such as Russia’s expulsion of the signatories of the Budapest Memorandum through its nuclear saber-rattling in the case of Ukraine.

Russia has mobilised its nuclear arsenals by deploying tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus to create deterrent effects to avert US or NATO forces’ direct involvement, thereby legitimising the escalation of a conventional war. In this process, the Ukraine battlefield has introduced new lessons for world militaries by integrating new technologies, which have transformed warfighting strategies. These are becoming part of a new warfighting toolkit for armed forces in other regions, too.

The Ukraine battlefield has introduced new lessons for world militaries by integrating new technologies, which have transformed warfighting strategies. Rizwana Abbasi

The use of new technologies in Ukraine

Ukraine seems to have effectively bridged the weapons asymmetries (conventional imbalance) with Russia by including newer technologies. For example, both Russia and Ukraine are employing drones in combination with missile strikes to launch counter-value attacks (targeting cities) and counter-force strikes (engaging precision targets). The Ukrainian military has efficiently employed drones alongside traditional weapons to guide artillery fire and conduct precision attacks by delivering munitions to selected targets. The military in Ukraine used rapidly and commercially available drones equipped with high-resolution cameras, easily integrated with smartphones and obtainable through various e-commerce platforms. The cost-effective nature of these platforms has rapidly bridged critical operational gaps and significantly impeded Russia’s military advancements. Drones are also used for surveillance and intelligence gathering, propaganda, strike coordination, identifying enemy bases, monitoring troop movements, and executing other critical operations, such as capturing photographs and videos..

Additionally, cyber operations are used frequently in the war in Ukraine by both Russia and Ukraine. Russian cyber warfare has had limited visible impact on Ukraine because Kyiv had already established a robust firewall in collaboration with the US, UK, and other NATO partners following the Russian 2014 incursion. Global tech giants such as Amazon, Google, Microsoft, and the Civilian Research and Development Foundation (CRDF) Global (a broad network of US companies and organisations that served as a platform for the Cyber Defence Assistance Collaborative) have contributed to Ukrainian cyber defence by providing intrusion protection software and sharing information on perceived attacks. Moreover, volunteer hacktivist groups based at home and abroad, such as the information technology-led human pool of Ukraine, have launched cyber-attacks into the Russian systems. Space-based systems have also been introduced by Ukraine for various strategic and tactical purposes. For example, the deployment of over 30,000 Starlink terminals by US company SpaceX has significantly bolstered Ukrainian communications infrastructure, allowing high-speed internet access to military and civilian populations. Ukraine has leveraged space-based platforms for intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance missions. Space-based positioning, navigation, and timing (PNT) technology has enabled the accurate targeting of key objectives, while early warning radar systems have navigated the launch of ballistic missiles.

Similarly, by embracing AI, or transforming the theatre of war into a digital battlefield, Ukraine has efficiently and swiftly integrated data collection, fusion, and analysis into its military strategies. The application of AI-led data analysis has been a crucial factor in bolstering Ukraine’s military capabilities. Enterprises such as Primer and Helsing have deployed natural linguistic processing, satellite image analysis, and processing technologies to intercept, transcribe, translate, and analyse Russian communications. Moreover, Scale AI’s machine-learning applications have been instrumental in aiding Ukrainian forces to swiftly and accurately evaluate attack locations and assess damage through imagery analysis. Furthermore, the intensified scrutiny of publicly available data, including social media content near the front line, has been facilitated by companies such as Transversals. Integrating AI-led translation, data aggregation, and geospatial analysis has notably augmented Ukraine’s battlespace awareness.

Learning for military strategies in South Asia

The deployment of these new technologies and strategies on the Ukrainian battlefield has opened up new areas of learning for militaries in South Asia. The forces should be observing how smarter technologies such as drones, space-based systems, cyber, and the digitalisation of the battlefield are changing warfighting toolkits and transforming the war theatre, as discussed above. India has already introduced a joint doctrine of the Indian Armed Forces (JDIAF-2017) to fight war on a full spectrum with a focus on punitive disruption and destruction. This doctrine legitimises smart strikes as an official part of the Indian strike toolkit.

In addition, India’s Land Warfare Doctrine (LWD-2018) emphasises military operations with depth, effect, sophistication, and precision, thereby heavily relying on disruptive technologies. India is reinforcing its existing operational capabilities through the inclusion of modern technologies to conduct cross-domain warfare such as hybrid warfare (a strategy to cover multiple and synchronised targets to exploit states’ vulnerabilities at different levels covering domains other than military), cyber warfare, information warfare, and electronic warfare capabilities thereby integrating them under a single umbrella. These renewed operational strategies enhance situational awareness of the adversary, improve the decision-making process, increase interoperability (coordination among different branches of services), and complicate the adversary’s targeting plans and strategic operations. The successful implementation of these operational plans demands an integrated command and control system, standardised communication protocols, shared situational awareness, joint training and exercises of all services, and adaptive planning and execution.

These technologies will make nuclear facilities and systems more vulnerable to targeting in South Asia. Rizwana Abbasi

Impact on nuclear escalation

While these globally unregulated disruptive technologies will give states more alternatives to conventional or nuclear warfare, these technologies will make nuclear facilities and systems more vulnerable to targeting in South Asia. In future wars, militaries will increasingly deploy smarter technologies to minimise collateral damage, reduce the cost of war, and avoid risks of escalation to the nuclear level. However, the use of modern disruptive technologies will also provide unpredictable pathways for swift and uncontrollable escalation due to Pakistan’s reliance on nuclear weapons because of its conventional imbalance with India. New patterns of warfare have created a likelihood of less time for decision-making and more intricate information and diverse corridors to escalation, miscalculation, and accidents, thereby increasing nuclear dangers and the risk of a breakdown of the nuclear taboo in South Asia.

Ways forward

At present, the official communication channels, such as military-to-military and political-to-political hotlines, are not functional between India and Pakistan. Both countries should revive their existing communication channels and resume diplomatic engagements and military-to-military dialogue to minimise misunderstandings, mistrust, and unwanted accidents. Complexities caused by EDTs can disrupt the utility of hotlines – for example, they can be manipulated by deepfakes and cyber – means that renewed discussions are vital to revive the scope of existing hotlines.

The major focus should be on nuclear war prevention, as the nuclear status of the two states and geographical contiguity will not allow these states to get into any future misadventures. The two states should understand that war, even at a limited conventional scale, can swiftly escalate to the nuclear level in the absence of a regional security framework. They should consider resuming bilateral confidence-building measures and negotiations on arms control, covering discussions on newer and disruptive technologies.

India and Pakistan should also open up avenues towards nuclear risk reduction. In this context, they can introduce nuclear accident prevention protocols, implement nuclear incident response mechanisms, continue notifying each other of nuclear missile tests, implement legal mechanisms to prevent unauthorised nuclear launches, and initiate regional nuclear security summits to discuss newer, smarter technologies. At a unilateral level, they should reinforce nuclear command and control structures, strengthen cyber security, and promote nuclear education and awareness to minimise public sensationalism and emotionalism on nuclear weapons use. These arrangements will strengthen regional strategic stability, prevent the risk of war, promote socio-economic growth, and improve the global security perceptions of South Asia.

The European Leadership Network itself as an institution holds no formal policy positions. The opinions articulated above represent the views of the authors rather than the European Leadership Network or its members. The ELN aims to encourage debates that will help develop Europe’s capacity to address the pressing foreign, defence, and security policy challenges of our time, to further its charitable purposes.

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