Diplomats and government officials will arrive in New York this weekend for the 11th NPT Review Conference. With global tensions running high and debate on nuclear diplomacy, disarmament, proliferation risks, and the peaceful use of nuclear energy again taking centre stage in multilateral fora, we ask members of the ELN network working on the NPT Project what they would like to see from this year’s Review Conference and what advice, if any, they would offer to diplomats entering negotiations.
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“Nuclear weapons risk becoming normalised as instruments of statecraft – widespread and ungoverned. This is not deterrence; it is anarchy.” 

Daniel Ajudeonu, Nigeria
Leadership Team Member and Africa Project Lead, International student/Young Pugwash 

As reliance on nuclear weapons regains strategic prominence in nuclear weapon states’ national security strategies, the confidence of non-nuclear weapon states in the NPT regime is eroding  and if that confidence is not restored, the proliferation of nuclear weapons to additional states becomes not a matter of if, but of when.

Nuclear weapons risk becoming normalised as instruments of statecraft – widespread and ungoverned. This is not deterrence; it is anarchy. And nuclear anarchy does not discriminate – it imperils every nation, every people, and every future generation.

To restore confidence, nuclear weapon states should reaffirm their commitment to disarmament, uphold existing moratoria on nuclear testing, strengthen norms against nuclear use, and expand support for non-nuclear weapon states interested in the peaceful uses of nuclear energy – ensuring the treaty remains mutually beneficial for all state parties.

Non-nuclear-weapon states must equally resist the temptation of proliferation and remain steadfast in upholding the regime.

If a nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought, then inaction in the face of the accelerating erosion of the global nuclear order is not a neutral choice. It is a dangerous one – for everyone. The NPT must be strengthened, not abandoned.

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“The NPT is on the brink of collapsing today. This time, it is not merely whether diplomats can agree on consensus language, but whether the NPT as such can be sustained.”

Thomas Hajnoczi, Austria
ELN Senior Network member and former Director for Disarmament, Arms Control and Non-Proliferation, Austrian Ministry of Foreign Affairs

Nuclear risks have risen, driven by increased salience on nuclear weapons, threats to use nuclear weapons and stressing reliance on nuclear deterrence. A breakout from the NPT is discussed in political circles in several non-nuclear states parties, and renewed nuclear testing in some nuclear-weapon states. Nuclear facilities devoted to peaceful purposes have been attacked recently, bringing about regional health hazards.

The negotiators in New York will have to address these key issues in the outcome document of the NPT Review Conference. The failure to fulfil the Article VI obligations for over half a century and the preaching of an alleged necessity for nuclear weapons for national security are eroding the very basis of the NPT, since this necessity could also be seen by additional states.

The NPT is on the brink of collapsing today. This time, it is not merely whether diplomats can agree on consensus language, but whether the NPT as such can be sustained.

Both non-nuclear-weapon states and nuclear-weapon states benefit from the NPT. I can only hope that they understand this and will act accordingly. The world would be less secure without the non-proliferation and nuclear disarmament norm of the NPT!

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“…[W]e now see a growing salience of nuclear weapons as an instrument of war fighting. It is my conviction that the nuclear taboo should be maintained and strengthened.”

Jan Hoekema, Netherlands
ELN Senior Network member, former MP, and Chair, Pugwash Netherlands

The NPT is, regrettably, in a survival mode.  It is not only the non-implementation of important parts of the Treaty, notably Article VI on (nuclear) disarmament, that is weakening the NPT. There is also a growing feeling that nuclear weapons are ‘normal’ weapons that may or may not be used in the present, dangerous world.

Nuclear deterrence is in itself already a risky concept, but we now see a growing salience of nuclear weapons as an instrument of war fighting. It is my conviction that the nuclear taboo should be maintained and strengthened. A nuclear war cannot be won and should never be fought, to cite former presidents Reagan and Gorbachev. This should remain our guiding principle.

The NPT is an essential cornerstone of stability and security. It should not be weakened and undermined. The number of de facto nuclear weapons states is already too high. A standalone European nuclear deterrence is not a good idea.

Let’s use the RevCon to reaffirm and bolster the NPT by having a frank and honest dialogue about the vitality of the Treaty.

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“While Europe remains divided on nuclear disarmament, all European states share an interest in averting a new nuclear arms race.”

Oliver Meier and Jana Baldus, Germany
ELN Nuclear and Multilateral Disarmament, Head of Programme and Policy Fellow

This RevCon will take place under difficult circumstances. To chart a course for success, Europeans must ground their approach in the NPT’s core principles. They will need to be courageous, coherent, and consistent.

European states should start by reasserting the NPT’s central tenets, particularly that states parties “need to make every effort to avert the danger” of nuclear war. This includes promoting measures to avoid inadvertent or accidental nuclear use, such as failsafe reviews.

While Europe remains divided on nuclear disarmament, all European states share an interest in averting a new nuclear arms race. The EU has rightfully encouraged “the United States and Russia to maintain the agreed [New START] limits on their nuclear arsenals”.  They should continue to hold this line.

European credibility on disarmament and arms control remains limited due to increased cooperation among some states on nuclear deterrence and the planned expansion of nuclear arsenals. There is a contradiction between the EU’s calls on China “to engage in risk reduction and arms control, including by enhancing transparency” and France’s own move towards reduced transparency regarding its arsenal. Justifying this as a way “to put an end to any speculation” is anathema to the agreed commitment by NPT nuclear-weapon states to increase openness and be more accountable.

The US and Israeli attacks on Iran test Europe’s commitment to international law. The lack of a coherent response reinforces perceptions of double standards and hinders diplomatic non-proliferation efforts. To highlight Russia’s attacks on Ukrainian nuclear facilities, Europe must consistently criticise all such attacks.

Political courage means upholding NPT principles despite pressure. European states should promote compromise and innovative solutions with diverse partners to prevent failure to ensure the NPT’s strengthening and preservation.

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“Nuclear weapons do not reliably deter war, but their unchecked spread can make any conflict far more destructive. That is what states parties must keep in mind when they meet.”

Andreas Persbo, Sweden/UK
ELN Senior Associate Fellow and Director, Open Nuclear Network

I remain hopeful that states parties will recognise the treaty’s value and act accordingly. They should reaffirm their disarmament obligations, recommit to practical risk‑reduction steps, pledge to strengthen safeguards, and reinforce the norm against treaty withdrawal. But I am equally cognisant that my hopes may be displaced this time around. What I do know is that the world does not need more nuclear‑armed states. Nuclear weapons do not reliably deter war, but their unchecked spread can make any conflict far more destructive. That is what states parties must keep in mind when they meet.

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“Mindful of the devastating effects of WMDs, of nuclear weapons, the international community needs further efforts to reduce such risks. Full and effective implementation of the NPT is one of the best means to do so.”

Ahmet Üzümcü, Turkey
ELN Senior Network member and former Director-General of the OPCW 

Diplomats, like me, who dealt with arms control and disarmament, long for a world where states are fully committed to implementing existing relevant legal instruments and to developing new ones when necessary. Today’s geopolitical environment, with ongoing armed conflicts, heightened security risks, and new, potentially disruptive technologies, renders such aspirations even more crucial to humanity. Mindful of the devastating effects of WMDs, of nuclear weapons, the international community needs further efforts to reduce such risks. Full and effective implementation of the NPT is one of the best means to do so.

Non-proliferation, transparency, negative security assurances, communication between nuclear-armed states, the nuclear test ban, and, above all, disarmament remain the main features of the NPT that need to be addressed. The Preparatory Committees and Review Conferences provide the necessary platforms to address these issues and exchange views, especially between NWSs and NNWSs. Although actions need to be taken principally by NWSs, nuclear risks are of vital concern to all.

States Parties should therefore use the upcoming RevCon as an opportunity to explain their concerns and express their expectations, while avoiding distractions by raising issues of lesser relevance. If it is the responsibility of our political leaders to ensure peace and security at home and project them beyond our borders, it is the duty of senior officials to advise them properly so that decisions are informed. I hope that delegates who participate in the RevCon will take the messages back to their respective capitals for consideration. I also hope that they will work constructively toward a successful outcome, as a step toward achieving the objectives of the NPT.
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The European Leadership Network itself as an institution holds no formal policy positions. The opinions articulated above represent the views of the authors rather than the European Leadership Network or its members. The ELN aims to encourage debates that will help develop Europe’s capacity to address the pressing foreign, defence, and security policy challenges of our time, to further its charitable purposes.