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Commentary

War amid talks

On Thursday night, Israel launched massive strikes on Iran, targeting its nuclear programme and military leaders. This came two days before the US and Iran were supposed to resume direct talks on finding a diplomatic agreement to curb Iran’s nuclear programme. Jane Kinninmont writes that while the short-term repercussions are highly uncertain, there may be more certainty about the long-term ones: this is hugely undermining to nuclear diplomacy and non-proliferation in general.

13 June 2025 | Jane Kinninmont
Iran
Podcast

The Women Leaders Podcast: The hidden crisis behind global fertility rates

In a world torn by conflict and culture wars, we often overlook the central issue: people. With every continent but Africa falling below the 2.1 fertility replacement rate, we may soon face a future short on caregivers, let alone soldiers or debaters. ELN Senior Associate Fellow Ilana Bet-El speaks with Birgit Van Hout, Director of the United Nations Population Fund’s (UNFPA) EU office, about this urgent demographic shift.

13 June 2025 | Ilana Bet-El and Florence Ferrando

Networks

Our networks are at the heart of our policy impact. Reaching right across Europe they bring together established figures with emerging leaders who are all committed to better security for Europe. 

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Group statements

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Commentaries

Commentary

Managed co-existence: What NATO could say about Russia

At last year’s Vilnius Summit, NATO pledged to develop a strategic approach to Russia. But with President Trump engaging Moscow directly and ending the “no business as usual” stance, consensus by the June summit in The Hague is unlikely. ELN Senior Associate Fellow and former UK Ambassador to NATO, Sir Adam Thomson, and Former NATO Assistant Secretary General for Operations, Stephen Evans, argue that in light of this, NATO should pursue a strategic shift—an internal deal towards a “managed co-existence” with Russia. This could align with Trump’s goals while preserving deterrence, sustaining European support for Ukraine, and keeping the U.S. committed to NATO.

21 May 2025 | Adam Thomson and Stephen Evans
Russia-West relations
Commentary

Summit survival guide: How NATO’s June 2025 Summit can preserve the Alliance’s core values and interests

NATO’s upcoming Summit in The Hague comes at a key point in the Alliance’s history; Russia’s continued aggression against Ukraine, American impatience with European underspending on defence, and European fears of American withdrawal from collective defence all represent major threats. Former NATO Assistant Secretary General for Operations, Stephen Evans, and ELN Senior Associate Fellow former UK Ambassador to NATO, Sir Adam Thomson, argue that NATO’s history demonstrates it is capable of combining strength and flexibility in times of crisis. They argue for a ‘back to basics’ approach to ease internal tensions, strengthen partnerships and move towards a state of ‘managed co-existence’ with Russia.

19 May 2025 | Stephen Evans and Adam Thomson
Russia-West relations
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Policy briefs & reports

Policy brief

Technological complexity and risk reduction: Using digital twins to navigate uncertainty in nuclear weapons decision-making and EDT landscapes

This policy brief explores the integration of digital twin technologies into nuclear decision-making processes, assessing their potential to reduce risks stemming from emerging disruptive technologies (EDTs). It argues for international dialogue, transparency, and responsible innovation to prevent misuse, enhance NC3 resilience, and strengthen strategic stability through informed, scenario-based crisis simulations.

23 April 2025 | Rishi Paul, Graham Stacey, Ganna Pogrebna, Immaculate-Motsi Omoijiade, Nathan Damaj and Jake McNaughton
Emerging Disruptive Technologies and Risk Reduction
Policy brief

Turning down the heat: Addressing the growing salience of nuclear weapons

At the 2025 NPT Preparatory Committee in New York this month a key issue likely to spark debate is the increasing salience of nuclear weapons. All five nuclear-weapon states under the NPT are increasing the role and significance of nuclear weapons in their military and security policies, at odds with the commitments accepted under the NPT. This new policy brief from the ELN’s Protecting the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty project examines this challenge and offers recommendations for states to address it within the NPT framework.

16 April 2025
Multilateral Arms Control, Disarmament and Non-ProliferationNPT Project
Policy brief

Focused Multilateralism: How China and Germany can better engage on arms control, disarmament and non-proliferation

Engaging China on multilateral arms control, disarmament and non-proliferation has become more urgent, but also more difficult. Even in times of increased competition between China, Russia, and the US, Europeans have agency and will need to up their level of ambition in pursuing their own interests in making multilateral instruments more resilient. ELN Policy & Research Director Oliver Meier and Michael Staack call for focused, substantive, and flexible dialogues between Europeans and Chinese.

18 March 2025 | Oliver Meier and Michael Staack
Multilateral Arms Control, Disarmament and Non-Proliferation
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Podcasts and Media

Podcast

The Women Leaders podcast: China, the world, and power

China has long contrasted itself with the United States, and the West more generally, as offering trade and aid to developing nations, without subjecting partners to moral lectures on democracy and human rights. President Trump, on his recent visit to Saudi Arabia, announced that the US would no longer tie aid and trade to democracy and human rights, signalling a further retreat from the post-WW2 order and posing an unexpected challenge to China’s no-strings-attached global strategy. ELN Senior Associate Fellow Ilana Bet-El explores this with Dr Ivana Karásková.

16 May 2025 | Ilana Bet-El and Florence Ferrando
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Most Read Content

  1. 1.

    Summit survival guide: How NATO’s June 2025 Summit can preserve the Alliance’s core values and interests

  2. 2.

    Europe’s dark future: How might a protracted conflict between Russia and Ukraine affect Europe?

  3. 3.

    Strengthening the NPT: ELN Activities at the 2025 PrepCom

  4. 4.

    Bluff and bluster: Why Putin revised Russia’s nuclear doctrine

  5. 5.

    Managed co-existence: What NATO could say about Russia